30 Aug · 21:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PP
🇵🇱Pawel Polok
ELO 1500
FormLWLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Badura
JB
🇵🇱Jaroslaw Badura
ELO 1520
FormWLLWL
48%
52%
Fair odds · Badura
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 44% · 2.28· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+20
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.