30 Aug · 23:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PA
🇵🇱Pawel Adamus
ELO 1515
FormWLLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Polok
PP
🇵🇱Pawel Polok
ELO 1521
FormWWLWL
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Adamus🌟Adamus goes over total as underdog 65% (57)
Fair odds · Polok
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 49% · 2.05· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+6
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.