30 Aug · 23:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
SS
🇵🇱Sebastian Szostok
ELO 1575
FormWLWLW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Szostok
GM
🇵🇱Grzegorz Marud
ELO 1530
FormWLWWL
55%
45%
Fair odds · Szostok
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~78 pts
3-1
22%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+45
H2H23-15
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+45)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (23-15)