30 Aug · 22:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
SK
🇵🇱Sebastian Krupa
ELO 1486
FormWLWLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Gumulinski
PG
🇵🇱Piotr Gumulinski
ELO 1505
FormLLLWW
48%
52%
Fair odds · Gumulinski
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 62% · 1.63· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~80 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+19
H2H5-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.