30 Aug · 22:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PP
🇵🇱Pawel Polok
ELO 1521
FormWWLWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Polok
WU
🇵🇱Wojciech Urban
ELO 1505
FormLLWLL
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Urban🌟Urban covers set handicap as underdog 68% (19)
Fair odds · Polok
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 55% · 1.81· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+16
H2H1-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.