30 Aug · 22:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MT
🇵🇱Mateusz Trela
ELO 1337
FormLLLLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Kotwica
DK
🇵🇱Dawid Kotwica
ELO 1363
FormWWLWW
47%
53%
🌟Kotwica rarely covers set handicap as favourite 29% (17)
Fair odds · Kotwica
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 43% · 2.30· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~76 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+26
H2H13-14
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.