30 Aug · 22:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PA
🇵🇱Pawel Adamus
ELO 1515
FormWLLWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Marud
GM
🇵🇱Grzegorz Marud
ELO 1530
FormWLWWL
48%
52%
🌟Adamus goes over total as underdog 65% (57)
Fair odds · Marud
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 53% · 1.89· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+15
H2H5-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.