30 Aug · 23:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
WU
🇵🇱Wojciech Urban
ELO 1505
FormLLWLL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Urban
JB
🇵🇱Jaroslaw Badura
ELO 1502
FormLLWLL
50%
50%
🌟Urban rarely covers set handicap as favourite 30% (33)
Fair odds · Urban
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 52% · 1.94· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+3
H2H7-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.