31 Aug · 01:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PA
🇵🇱Pawel Adamus
ELO 1515
FormLWWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Urban
WU
🇵🇱Wojciech Urban
ELO 1524
FormWWLLW
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Adamus🌟Urban rarely covers set handicap as favourite 30% (33)
Fair odds · Urban
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 38% · 2.63· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+9
H2H6-14
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.