31 Aug · 03:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
SS
🇵🇱Sebastian Szostok
ELO 1575
FormLWLWW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Szostok
JB
🇵🇱Jaroslaw Badura
ELO 1508
FormWWLLL
57%
43%
Fair odds · Szostok
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 61% · 1.64· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~77 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+67
H2H8-4
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+67)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (8-4)