31 Aug · 03:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
GM
🇵🇱Grzegorz Marud
ELO 1504
FormLLLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Urban
WU
🇵🇱Wojciech Urban
ELO 1511
FormLLWWL
49%
51%
🌟Urban rarely covers set handicap as favourite 30% (33)
Fair odds · Urban
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 39% · 2.55· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+7
H2H51-59
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.