31 Aug · 05:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
SS
🇵🇱Sebastian Szostok
ELO 1581
FormWLWLW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Szostok
GM
🇵🇱Grzegorz Marud
ELO 1497
FormLLLLW
59%
41%
Fair odds · Szostok
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 63% · 1.58· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~78 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
19%
3-2
17%
1-3
16%
2-3
13%
Elo Gap+84
H2H24-15
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+84)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (24-15)