31 Aug · 04:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PA
🇵🇱Pawel Adamus
ELO 1529
FormWWLWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Adamus
WU
🇵🇱Wojciech Urban
ELO 1511
FormLLWWL
52%
48%
🌟Urban covers set handicap as underdog 68% (19)
Fair odds · Adamus
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 59% · 1.69· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~79 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+18
H2H15-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.