31 Aug · 04:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PP
🇵🇱Pawel Polok
ELO 1528
FormWLWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Polok
GM
🇵🇱Grzegorz Marud
ELO 1497
FormLLLLW
53%
47%
Fair odds · Polok
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 58% · 1.72· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~75 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+31
H2H3-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.