31 Aug · 11:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
GK
🇵🇱Gracjan Kesik
ELO 1526
FormWWWLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Minda
MM
🇵🇱Michal Minda
ELO 1552
FormWLWLW
47%
53%
Fair odds · Minda
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 60% · 1.68· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+26
H2H8-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.