31 Aug · 12:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MS
🇵🇱Miroslav Sklensky
ELO 1654
FormWLLWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Sklensky
KK
🇵🇱Krzysztof Kapik
ELO 1617
FormLWWLW
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kapik🌟Kapik covers set handicap as underdog 67% (160)
Fair odds · Sklensky
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 63% · 1.58· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~76 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+37
H2H18-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.