31 Aug · 11:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
LJ
🇵🇱Lukasz Jarocki
ELO 1678
FormLWWWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Jarocki
MS
🇵🇱Miroslav Sklensky
ELO 1654
FormWLLWW
53%
47%
Fair odds · Jarocki
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 44% · 2.29· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+24
H2H33-35
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.