31 Aug · 13:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JP
🇵🇱Jerzy Pelka
ELO 1457
FormLLLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Pelka
WB
🇵🇱Witold Buczynski
ELO 1452
FormWLLWW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Pelka
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 59% · 1.69· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+5
H2H19-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.