31 Aug · 13:50 MESZLow · Coin Flip
GK
🇵🇱Gracjan Kesik
ELO 1534
FormLWWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Sobel
AS
🇵🇱Artur Sobel
ELO 1539
FormLWLLL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Sobel
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 52% · 1.93· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+5
H2H7-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.