31 Aug · 13:20 MESZLow · Coin Flip
KW
🇵🇱Karol Wisniewski
ELO 1613
FormLWWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Kapik
KK
🇵🇱Krzysztof Kapik
ELO 1623
FormWLWWL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Kapik
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 60% · 1.66· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+10
H2H75-60
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.