31 Aug · 14:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
KW
🇵🇱Karol Wisniewski
ELO 1613
FormLWWWL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Jarocki
LJ
🇵🇱Lukasz Jarocki
ELO 1665
FormWLLLW
44%
56%
Fair odds · Jarocki
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 63% · 1.58· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~77 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+52
H2H53-49
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+52)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (53-49)