31 Aug · 16:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AS
🇵🇱Artur Sobel
ELO 1549
FormWWLWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Sobel
MM
🇵🇱Michal Minda
ELO 1528
FormLWLLL
52%
48%
Fair odds · Sobel
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 52% · 1.93· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+21
H2H57-50
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.