31 Aug · 16:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
LJ
🇵🇱Lukasz Jarocki
ELO 1657
FormLWLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Jarocki
KK
🇵🇱Krzysztof Kapik
ELO 1633
FormWWWLW
53%
47%
🌟Kapik covers set handicap as underdog 67% (160)
Fair odds · Jarocki
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 60% · 1.66· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+24
H2H68-41
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.