31 Aug · 15:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JP
🇵🇱Jerzy Pelka
ELO 1462
FormLWLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Pelka
MB
🇵🇱Mariusz Baron
ELO 1450
FormLLLWW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Pelka
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 45% · 2.22· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~79 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+12
H2H10-15
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.