31 Aug · 16:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
GK
🇵🇱Gracjan Kesik
ELO 1526
FormLLLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Kesik
BM
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Mleczko
ELO 1499
FormWLWWW
53%
47%
Fair odds · Kesik
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 55% · 1.81· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~76 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
15%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+27
H2H10-13
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.