31 Aug · 20:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MP
🇵🇱Milosz Piecowski
ELO 1379
FormLLWWW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Piecowski
BM
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Mrugala
ELO 1319
FormLLLLL
57%
43%
🔥 Underdog lean · Mrugala🌟Piecowski goes over total as favourite 73% (22)
Fair odds · Piecowski
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~79 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+60
H2H1-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+60)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)