31 Aug · 19:45 MESZMedium · Model Lean
BW
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Wisniewski
ELO 1362
FormWWWWL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Wisniewski
BM
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Mrugala
ELO 1319
FormLLLLL
55%
45%
Fair odds · Wisniewski
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 53% · 1.89· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~78 pts
3-1
22%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+43
H2H9-4
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+43)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (9-4)