31 Aug · 21:10 MESZHigh · Clear Favorite
JN
🇵🇱Jakub Nowak
ELO 1361
FormWWWLL
63%Win chancemodel fair 1.59Marud
GM
🇵🇱Grzegorz Marud
ELO 1482
FormLLLWL
37%
63%
🌟Nowak goes over total as underdog 62% (37)
Fair odds · Marud
Model 63% · 1.59vsMarket 67% · 1.49· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 48%Total ~77 pts
1-3
24%
0-3
23%
2-3
16%
3-1
14%
3-2
13%
Elo Gap+121
H2H50-27
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+121)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (50-27)