31 Aug · 20:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
BW
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Wisniewski
ELO 1353
FormLWWWW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Wisniewski
PS
🇵🇱Piotr Strus
ELO 1290
FormWWWLW
57%
43%
🌟Strus goes over total as underdog 65% (23)
Fair odds · Wisniewski
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 62% · 1.62· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~79 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+63
H2H28-16
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+63)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (28-16)