31 Aug · 20:45 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MS
🇵🇱Mateusz Sikon
ELO 1376
FormWLLWL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Adamus
MA
🇵🇱Mariusz Adamus
ELO 1444
FormLWWWL
43%
57%
🌟Adamus rarely covers set handicap as favourite 33% (21)
Fair odds · Adamus
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 63% · 1.58· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~78 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+68
H2H4-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+68)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (4-0)