31 Aug · 22:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
BM
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Mrugala
ELO 1334
FormWWLLL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Mrugala
MP
🇵🇱Miroslaw Piecowski
ELO 1274
FormLLLLW
57%
43%
🌟Mrugala rarely covers set handicap as favourite 22% (18)
Fair odds · Mrugala
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 47% · 2.13· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~79 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+60
H2H3-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+60)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (3-2)