31 Aug · 21:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MA
🇵🇱Mariusz Adamus
ELO 1438
FormLLWWW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Marud
GM
🇵🇱Grzegorz Marud
ELO 1482
FormLLLWL
45%
55%
🌟Adamus covers set handicap as underdog 94% (18)
Fair odds · Marud
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 54% · 1.85· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~78 pts
1-3
22%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+44
H2H16-14
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+44)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (16-14)