31 Aug · 23:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MS
🇵🇱Mateusz Sikon
ELO 1393
FormWWWLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Sikon
JN
🇵🇱Jakub Nowak
ELO 1368
FormWWWWL
53%
47%
🌟Nowak goes over total as underdog 62% (37)
Fair odds · Sikon
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 43% · 2.33· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~79 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
15%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+25
H2H5-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.