31 Aug · 23:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
BW
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Wisniewski
ELO 1342
FormLLWWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Piecowski
MP
🇵🇱Milosz Piecowski
ELO 1368
FormLLWLL
47%
53%
🌟Piecowski goes over total as favourite 73% (22)
Fair odds · Piecowski
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 63% · 1.58· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~80 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+26
H2H15-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.