31 Aug · 22:50 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PG
🇵🇱Piotr Gesiarz
ELO 1486
FormWLWLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Cyndera
JC
🇵🇱Jakub Cyndera
ELO 1512
FormWLLLW
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Gesiarz🌟Cyndera rarely covers set handicap as favourite 26% (23)
Fair odds · Cyndera
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+26
H2H15-11
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.