1 Sept · 07:35 MESZLow · Coin Flip
SB
🇵🇱Szymon Brud
ELO 1504
FormLWLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Minda
MM
🇵🇱Michal Minda
ELO 1511
FormLLLLW
49%
51%
Fair odds · Minda
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 55% · 1.81· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+7
H2H5-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.