1 Sept · 06:50 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MM
🇵🇱Michal Minda
ELO 1519
FormLLLWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Sobel
AS
🇵🇱Artur Sobel
ELO 1546
FormLWWWL
47%
53%
Fair odds · Sobel
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 54% · 1.84· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+27
H2H58-50
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.