1 Sept · 08:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
RI
🇵🇱Rafal Idaczyk
ELO 1418
FormWWLWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Idaczyk
JK
🇵🇱Jakub Kaczmarek
ELO 1386
FormWLLLL
54%
46%
🌟Kaczmarek covers set handicap as underdog 65% (60)
Fair odds · Idaczyk
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 72% · 1.39· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+32
H2H48-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.