1 Sept · 09:15 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AS
🇵🇱Artur Sobel
ELO 1562
FormWWLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Sobel
JZ
🇵🇱Jakub Zochniak
ELO 1554
FormWLLLW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Sobel
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 52% · 1.93· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+8
H2H25-24
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.