1 Sept · 13:20 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AS
🇵🇱Adrian Spychala
ELO 1622
FormWLLLW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Kosmal
DK
🇵🇱Dawid Kosmal
ELO 1625
FormLLWWL
50%
50%
Fair odds · Kosmal
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 46% · 2.17· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+3
H2H2-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.