1 Sept · 17:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
RN
🇵🇱Rafal Niemiec
ELO 1490
FormLWLWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Niemiec
PK
🇵🇱Pawel Kurek
ELO 1458
FormWWLLW
54%
46%
🌟Niemiec rarely covers set handicap as favourite 35% (37)
Fair odds · Niemiec
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 48% · 2.08· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~79 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+32
H2H2-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.