1 Sept · 16:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
RN
🇵🇱Rafal Niemiec
ELO 1490
FormLWLWL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Niemiec
OS
🇵🇱Oliwier Sokolowski
ELO 1448
FormLLWWL
55%
45%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sokolowski🌟Sokolowski covers set handicap as underdog 67% (106)
Fair odds · Niemiec
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 55% · 1.83· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~81 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+42
H2H5-4
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+42)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (5-4)