1 Sept · 18:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
BM
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Mrugala
ELO 1348
FormWWWWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Mrugala
BW
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Wisniewski
ELO 1327
FormWLLWL
52%
48%
🌟Mrugala rarely covers set handicap as favourite 22% (18)
Fair odds · Mrugala
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 43% · 2.32· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~80 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+21
H2H5-10
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.