2 Sept · 08:45 MESZMedium · Model Lean
WU
🇵🇱Wojciech Urban
ELO 1529
FormLWLLL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Lebek
ML
🇵🇱Marian Lebek
ELO 1582
FormWWLWW
44%
56%
🌟Urban covers set handicap as underdog 68% (19)
Fair odds · Lebek
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~76 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+53
H2H28-22
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+53)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (28-22)