2 Sept · 10:20 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
RG
🇵🇱Rafal Gajda
ELO 1482
FormLWLWW
67%Win chancemodel fair 1.49Gajda
BM
🇵🇱Boguslaw Madej
ELO 1323
FormLLLWL
67%
33%
Fair odds · Gajda
Model 67% · 1.49vsMarket 69% · 1.44· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 50%Total ~78 pts
3-1
26%
3-0
24%
3-2
16%
1-3
13%
2-3
12%
Elo Gap+159
H2H25-9
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+159)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (25-9)