2 Sept · 10:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
ML
🇵🇱Mikolaj Lukaszewski
ELO 1268
FormLLWLL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Wnek
SW
🇵🇱Stanislaw Wnek
ELO 1333
FormLLLLW
43%
57%
🔥 Underdog lean · Lukaszewski🌟Wnek rarely covers set handicap as favourite 29% (45)
Fair odds · Wnek
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 65% · 1.54· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~77 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+65
H2H28-22
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+65)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (28-22)