2 Sept · 13:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
RG
🇵🇱Rafal Gajda
ELO 1478
FormWLLWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Gajda
WB
🇵🇱Witold Buczynski
ELO 1443
FormLLWWL
54%
46%
Fair odds · Gajda
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 56% · 1.77· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~81 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+35
H2H10-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.