2 Sept · 15:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
RG
🇵🇱Rafal Gajda
ELO 1475
FormWLWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Gajda
MA
🇵🇱Mariusz Adamus
ELO 1470
FormWWWLW
51%
49%
🌟Adamus covers set handicap as underdog 94% (18)
Fair odds · Gajda
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 43% · 2.35· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+5
H2H6-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.