3 Sept · 00:50 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MP
🇵🇱Michal Paszkiewicz
ELO 1471
FormLWWLL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Urban
WU
🇵🇱Wojciech Urban
ELO 1526
FormWLLWL
44%
56%
🔥 Underdog lean · Paszkiewicz🌟Paszkiewicz covers set handicap as underdog 77% (26)
Fair odds · Urban
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 56% · 1.80· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~77 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+55
H2H13-5
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+55)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (13-5)