3 Sept · 07:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
ML
🇵🇱Mikolaj Lukaszewski
ELO 1300
FormWWLWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Wnek
SW
🇵🇱Stanislaw Wnek
ELO 1328
FormLWLLL
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Lukaszewski🌟Wnek rarely covers set handicap as favourite 29% (45)
Fair odds · Wnek
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 64% · 1.56· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+28
H2H29-22
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.